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While Nvidia (NVDA) is undeniably a leader in the AI space, the overwhelming bullish sentiment and potential supply constraints raise concerns.
This report delves into the reasons why investors might consider taking profits on NVDA stock or avoiding new positions.
Here’s why you might want to trim your NVDA position today…
1. Overwhelming Bullish Sentiment:
- Wall Street experts are overwhelmingly positive about Nvidia's prospects, with many raising their price targets.
- The consensus is so strong that it's challenging to find any dissenting voices, making it a crowded trade.
- Historically, when everyone is on one side of a trade, it's often a signal to reconsider positions.
2. Valuation Concerns:
- Nvidia's trailing P/E ratio stands at a staggering 227x, which many investors have come to accept as the new normal.
- This acceptance is reminiscent of the tech bubble in the early 2000s, where companies like Cisco Systems had similarly inflated valuations.
- The trajectory of NVDA stock in 2023 might give seasoned investors a sense of déjà vu.
3. Analyst Hype and One-upmanship:
- Analysts are in a race to outdo each other with effusive praise and ever-increasing price targets.
- Terms like “kingmaker” are being used to describe Nvidia, which may be indicative of an overheated sentiment.
- Such overwhelming positive sentiment should be a warning sign for contrarian and value investors.
4. Supply Constraints:
- Nvidia's H100 chips, which power platforms like OpenAI's ChatGPT, are in high demand.
- Despite the strong demand, there are concerns about Nvidia's ability to meet the supply requirements.
- Stifel analyst Ruben Roy highlighted supply concerns as “top of mind” for investors.
- Major tech players like Oracle, Meta, and Microsoft are reportedly in need of hundreds of thousands of Nvidia's H100 chips, leading to shortage fears.
5. Double Ordering and Potential Air Pockets:
- Limited supply often leads to a phenomenon known as double ordering, where customers order more than they need due to scarcity.
- There's debate on whether the current demand level is the new baseline or if it's driven by panic buying.
- Nvidia bull, Rasgon, acknowledges that at some point, Nvidia will likely face an “air pocket” in demand.
Conclusion
While Nvidia's position in the AI space is commendable, the combination of an over-the-top valuation, overwhelming bullish sentiment, and potential supply constraints make it a stock to approach with caution. Investors should consider taking profits if they hold NVDA stock and be wary of entering new positions given the current landscape. The hype surrounding Nvidia, especially ahead of its earnings, may overshadow crucial factors that could impact its stock performance in the near term.
#1 AI Stock of 2023 (Not NVDA)
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Most people will go their whole lives without capturing a 1,000% gain. But one Wall Street veteran may have cracked the code. For nearly 50 years, Marc Chaikin was the quantitative mind behind some of the most famous investors in history: Paul Tudor Jones, George Soros, Steve Cohen, and Michael Steinhardt. Even the Nasdaq hired him to create three new indices. All because Chaikin built the Wall Street system for detecting 10X stocks.
- It flashed “buy” on vaccine-makers Novavax (NVAX) and BioNTech (BNTX), months before the pandemic even began.
BioNTech (BNTX) quickly surged 2,188%. Novavax (NVAX) shot up 7,612%.
- It flashed “buy” on EV stock Blink Charging (BLNK), before it jumped 1,433%.
- And even RIOT Blockchain (RIOT)… right before Bitcoin shot past $60,000… and sent RIOT up 10,090% in less than a year.
Since then, Chaikin's gained over 1 million followers – and one of the best reputations in the financial world. His system has pinpointed dozens of stocks that went onto soar 100% to 1,000%, often in less than a year. And today, he's doing it all over again, for the hottest investment trend of 2023: A.I. I just sat down with Chaikin for a “tell-all” interview, where he revealed the name and ticker of his favorite A.I. stock of 2023. His system flashed “buy” on both Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta (META) before their extraordinary runups earlier this year. But he says that's nothing compared what's in store for this “under-the-radar” A.I. stock. He told me, “This company just teamed up with one of the biggest power players in the A.I. industry – but you can still buy it for just one-twelfth the price of Nvidia (NVDA). The time to buy is NOW.” To see Chaikin's full prediction for yourself, simply click here. You'll get this stock's
