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Last week marked a significant moment in the financial markets, as the S&P 500 exhibited an extraordinary and relatively infrequent technical indicator. For the first time in over a year, the stock market entered a state of extreme technical overbought condition. This is discerned through the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a widely regarded metric used by traders to evaluate market conditions. On this occasion, the RSI of the S&P 500 surged past the 80 mark, a rare occurrence signaling a heightened overbought state.
To contextualize, the RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, typically oscillating between zero and 100. A reading below 30 suggests an oversold market, while a reading above 70 indicates an overbought market. Since the Thanksgiving period, the RSI of the S&P 500 has consistently hovered above 70. However, its recent leap above 80 takes it beyond mere overbought status to a level of extreme overbought, a situation not seen since the tumultuous period following the COVID-19 market crash.
Historical patterns paint an interesting picture of what could lie ahead. Drawing parallels to the post-COVID rally of 2020, we observed that after the RSI soared above 80 in late August of that year, the market experienced a 10% pullback in September. This was followed by a remarkable 50% rally over the subsequent year-plus period. This pattern suggests a potential repetition in the current market scenario. The immediate forecast could involve a brief pullback in January, setting the stage for a substantial rally throughout the remainder of 2024.
Our analysis, stretching back to 1950, reveals insightful trends about stock market behavior following such overbought conditions. In the month following the first extreme overbought signal in over a year, the market tends to exhibit volatility, with approximately equal chances of rising or falling, averaging out to virtually zero net return. However, the longer-term outlook is significantly more optimistic. In the 12 months following such an event, stocks have historically rallied 85% of the time, and this figure rises to 90% over a 24-month horizon. The average returns for these one- and two-year periods are 16% and 19%, respectively.
In essence, the pattern observed yesterday indicates a probable short-term pullback, followed by a strong upward trajectory over the next 12 to 24 months. This scenario presents a compelling opportunity for investors to capitalize on the anticipated dip in January before the expected robust rally throughout 2024.
The key question now is: which stocks should you invest in during this dip? Fortunately, we have thoroughly researched and prepared strategic recommendations to guide you in making informed investment decisions during this pivotal period. Check this out…
Elon Musk: THIS will be bigger than Tesla
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Hello. I'm James Altucher. I've been called a “genius investor” by my fans… And an “eccentric millionaire” by some others. I think it's because I make big predictions… That tend to come true. Today, I'm revealing a brand-new prediction:
American manufacturing will leave China…
And make a triumphant return to America…
Thanks to AI-powered robots.
The technology is being developed right now. I'm talking about, among others… Elon Musk's Optimus robots. These robots are autonomous workers… Embedded with a smart “AI brain”. Musk is going to use thousands of them in Tesla factories… AI robots will make it cheaper to manufacture goods here in America than China. And they'll create new American jobs in construction, maintenance, transportation, management, and more. Musk believes the potential of these robots is almost limitless… And could soon exceed Tesla's revenues… He's even said his robots have the potential to be used in homes… To make dinner and do housework… Care for the elderly… Or even hinted at them… Being a buddy or “romantic companion” for lonely people. Now that may sound strange… (And perhaps it is.) But I've learned not to bet against Musk's vision. And this is just one of the ways AI will transform our economy and society. In fact, I now predict… Between now and January 9, 2024… Next generation AI technology will open a “wealth window”… That could be the biggest wealth-building opportunity of your lifetime. I now expect AI to be the first $100 TRILLION industry. There could be trillions available to those who get in early… Today, for the first time… I'm showing good Americans exactly what to do… Go here now to see my plan… For investing in AI during this brief “wealth window”.
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