Why This Biotech Stock Could Crush Earnings on August 2nd

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Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT) is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the discovery and development of unique RNA-targeted therapeutics, gene therapy, and other genetic therapeutic modalities for the treatment of rare diseases.

The company is developing potential therapeutic candidates for a broad range of diseases and disorders, including Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), Limb-girdle muscular dystrophies (LGMDs), and other neuromuscular and central nervous system (CNS) related disorders.

As for its progress in 2023, the company has been preparing for what could be the largest gene therapy launch to date if SRP-9001 is approved. For the first quarter of 2023, the company recorded total revenues of $253 million.

During its first quarter 2023 earnings call, Sarepta reported strong performance. Here are the key highlights:

  • The company recorded total revenues of $253.5 million for the first quarter of 2023, which consists of net product revenues and collaboration revenue. This is an increase from revenues of $210.8 million for the same period in 2022, marking an increase of $42.7 million.
  • Net product revenue for the first quarter of 2023 from their PMO exon skipping franchise was $231.5 million, compared to $188.8 million for the same period of 2022. The increase in net product revenue primarily reflects increasing demands for their products.
  • The company recognized $22 million of collaboration revenue in both the quarters ended March 31, 2023, and 2022, which relates to their collaboration arrangement with Roche.
  • They reported a GAAP net loss of $516.8 million.
  • The company is preparing for what could be the largest gene therapy launch to date if SRP-9001 is approved. The team is in place and being rigorously trained.
  • They have completed enrollment in the first quarter of 2023 for their MOMENTUM study for SRP-5051 and remain on track to announce data from the study in the back half of 2023.
  • They reiterated their full-year guidance of greater than $925 million in net product revenue for their PMO therapies.

With Wall Street's expectation of a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues for the quarter ending June 2023, Sarepta Therapeutics is poised for positive growth. The forthcoming earnings report on August 2nd, 2023, presents an opportunity for the SRPT stock to surge given its past performance and recent data indicators.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a quarterly loss of $2.03 per share expected for Sarepta Therapeutics, which signifies a positive change of +23.4% year-over-year. Additionally, revenues for the quarter are projected to reach $264.45 million, marking a 13.3% increase from the same quarter the previous year.

Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised upwards by 4.04%, reflecting the revised initial estimates of the covering analysts. This upward revision trend reflects an increasingly bullish outlook for the company's earnings prospects.

Applying the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model, which factors in the most recent analyst estimates, an Earnings ESP of +8.01% is evident for Sarepta Therapeutics. This positive ESP reading indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate, suggesting an earnings beat.

Moreover, SRPT currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold). The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a solid Zacks Rank, in this case, points to a higher likelihood of SRPT beating the consensus EPS estimate. This is supported by our research which shows that this combination of factors leads to a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time.

Historical performance also points to a positive trend. In the last reported quarter, Sarepta Therapeutics exceeded expectations by reporting a loss of $0.97 per share compared to the expected loss of $1.46, delivering a positive surprise of +33.56%. Over the previous four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice.

It's important to remember that while an earnings beat or miss is a significant factor, it may not be the only determinant for a stock's movement. Other factors, like management's commentary on business conditions and future earnings expectations, play an essential role in influencing the sustainability of immediate price changes and future stock performance.

However, betting on stocks expected to beat earnings expectations, like Sarepta Therapeutics in this case, can heighten the odds of successful investing. It's not just the Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank investors should be considering, but also the company's past performance and other relevant factors.

In conclusion, with the anticipated year-over-year increase in earnings, positive earnings surprise history, upward revisions of EPS estimates, and an encouraging Earnings ESP, Sarepta Therapeutics presents a solid opportunity for investors to capitalize on potential stock price appreciation following the August 2nd earnings report.


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